2020,疫情之下的能源圈(上)

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2020年,全球的能源相关产业都受到新冠疫情的影响,主要表现为交通出行减少,工业生产总量降低,实体商业受限,导致总体能耗下滑,能耗结构改变。本文分为上下两部分,以“能耗与排放”、“可再生能源”、“电力”、“居家办公”、“交通出行”、“投资&就业”为关键词,从国际能源署2020年发布的各类年度调查报告中摘选出23个精华图表,快速回顾过去一年全球能源行业走势。

能耗与排放

图1:全球2019-20年电力、热力和交通运输行业中可再生能源产量和总需求变化[1].

如图1所示,新冠疫情的大规模封锁大幅度降低了全球电力需求。而由于风能和太阳能光伏的较低可变成本、优先调度规则、长期合同,以及可持续容量部署,可变可再生能源(VRE)在总发电量中占比创下记录,证明了其韧性,预示未来高比例VRE电力市场。与之相比,热力和交通运输领域的可再生能源韧性较差,其具体表现为高耗能制造业中的生物能源和废物使用量降低。而住宅领域中可再生能源的使用受到需求冲击的影响较小。交通运输活动减少及原油价格下行使得疫情期间可再生能源中的生物燃料使用量显著下降。[1]

图2:全球一次能源需求的变化率, 1900-2020 [2]

2020年第一季度数据显示,全球经济活动和流动性大幅减少,导致全球能源需求同比2019年下降3.8%,这种下降在过去70年里从未出现过。其中,煤炭、石油、核能、天然气的需求均下跌。除疫情外,北半球大部分地区较往年温和的冬季天气也是能耗降低的原因之一,尤其是在美国。而得力于前一年新建成的风能和太阳能项目,可再生能源需求增长约1.5%。[2]

图3:某些相关产业总产量的变化(吨), 2020上半年 vs. 2019上半年[3]

产量下降导致2020年工业能耗显著降低。封锁导致工人流动减少,生产减少,同时对上游产品的需求下降。世界第二大水泥生产国印度,水泥产量同比2019年下降了约85%。但某些行业也有反弹,在3月至4月解除封锁后,中国2020年上半年钢铁行业的产量超过了2019年,且5月份水泥产量也出现强劲反弹。[3]

图4:全球与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量及其年度变化, 1900-2020 [2]

预计2020年全球二氧化碳排放量将比2019年减少近8%,达到自2010年以来的最低水平。其中,煤炭使用的减少贡献1.1亿吨以上,其次是石油(1亿吨)和天然气(0.4亿吨)。美国的绝对排放量降幅最大,约为6亿吨,中国和欧盟紧随其后。德国联邦政府于2014年提出的“气候保护行动纲领2020”中的减排目标,即德国2020年碳排放量相比1990年降低40%,也超出预期(42.3%)完成,然而,其中三分之二的减排量是由疫情造成的。[2]

可再生能源

图5:2019年和2020年一、二季度按技术分类的可再生能源增量[1]
图6:某些国家/地区的可再生电力增量,2019年上半年vs. 2020年上半年[1]

2020年上半年,全球可再生电力新增容量同比2019年减少了11%以上,其中光伏新增发电量减少17%,风电扩张下降近8%,而水电增量则因为中国一些大型项目投入运行而有所增加。图8中,中国2020年前三个月风电装机量下降50%。太阳能光伏下降25%。而在美国,政策期限决定了风能和太阳能光伏的扩张,可再生能源的部署很大程度上不受新冠疫情相关限制的影响。同一时期,印度的可再生能源容量增长于3月底全国封锁之前已经开始放缓,主要是由公用事业企业财务状况欠佳和项目延期的持续挑战所致。欧洲各国2020年上半年受封锁影响,可再生能源的增量同比2019年降低,但在第二季度由于封锁和行动限制的缓解,陆续在5月和6月开始复苏。而东盟地区的装机容量同比2019年减少了近60%。[1]

电力

图7:某些国家/地区每周用电量变化(经天气校正),2020年一月份至十二月份[4]

2020年,全球交通运输、工业生产和建筑的能耗都有所下降。而由于封锁政策,人们长期居家,家庭能耗普遍上升,但是这种增长并不能阻止总能耗的下降。[4]

图8:某些国家/地区的电力需求年平均增长率,2001年-2020年[2]

国际能源署预计2020年全球电力需求将下降5%。这将是自大萧条(Great Depression) 以来的最大降幅,是2009年由全球金融危机导致的降幅的8倍。而在更加依赖工业的经济体中(例如中国,2019年工业用电量占总用电量60%以上),封锁措施对电力需求的影响较小。而工业仅占电力需求20%,服务业占40%的美国,则受到了显著的影响。在欧洲,服务业在整体经济中扮演着核心角色,因此感受到的冲击最大。[2]

图9:工业电价变化,2020上半年vs. 2019上半年[3]
图10:某些国家/地区的VRE发电在总发电量中的月均占比及基本负荷批发电价[1]

新冠疫情影响下,低电力需求,更高的VRE市场占有率,以及低燃油价格共同推动了欧美的批发电价走低。在德国、意大利、加利福尼亚州、西班牙和英国,现货市场平均价格在2月到4月期间下降了30-50%。历史数据已表明,在过去五年来VRE市场占有率较高的德国,加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和西班牙,需要减少常规发电设施,批发电价受到抑制,电价已出现下降。[1]

图11:按来源分类的可再生发电量的年增长率,2018年-2020年[2]

尽管Covid-19危机造成供应链和建设延误,但可再生发电仍增长近5%,几乎占全球电力供应的30%,将与煤炭的差距减半(2019年为10个百分点)。总体而言,可再生能源的增长比去年放缓,但与自2016年以来的总体放缓趋势一致。2020年,太阳能光伏将成为所有可再生能源中增长最快的,而风力发电的绝对发电量增幅预计最大。由于向大型发电厂运送固体生物燃料的供应链中断和物流方面受到的挑战,生物能源发电预计将放缓(例如欧洲的大型生物能源发电厂主要使用来自北美的木屑颗粒作为燃料)。[2]

居家办公

图12:居家办公对全球年度二氧化碳排放量以及与燃料相关的最终能源消耗量的影响[3]

疫情影响下,居家办公成了2020年的关键词之一。与在办公室工作相比,在家工作一天可以增加7%至23%的家庭每日能源消耗,但与此同时,可以减少开车上下班所需的时间和燃料,从而减少能源消耗和二氧化碳排放。然而,对于那些通常只使用汽车或主要乘坐公共交通工具进行短途通勤的人来说,在家工作可能会导致能源需求和二氧化碳排放(取决于住宅燃料组合)的小幅净增长。从全球来看,近五分之一的工作可以在家里完成。如果所有这些人每周都能远程工作一天,每年将节省全球公路客运消耗石油总量的1%左右。扣除掉相应增加的家庭能源使用量,全球二氧化碳排放量每年可减少2400万吨。然而,如果习惯性在家工作导致人们搬到需要更多取暖和制冷能源的城市外更大的房子,并选择能源更密集的交通工具,从而消耗更多能源,可能会部分抵消因为办公大楼和通勤减少而降低的能源需求。除远程工作外,视像会议的使用也取代了长途商务旅行从而减少了航空燃料的需求和排放。根据目前的飞机效率,将飞往距离6小时以上目的地的商务旅行减半,每年的航班数量可能减少不到1%,但二氧化碳排放将降低约5000万吨。[3]


References

[1]     International Energy Agency, Renewables 2020.

[2]     International Energy Agency, Global Energy Review 2020.

[3]     International Energy Agency, Energy Efficiency 2020.

[4]     IEA, Paving the way to recovery with utility-funded energy efficiency – Analysis – IEA, 2021.000Z. https://www.iea.org/articles/paving-the-way-to-recovery-with-utility-funded-energy-efficiency 

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